When Arizona found itself inside six National Hurricane Center forecast cones this year, many assumed a typo. Yet Florida was only caught three times, according to a fresh analysis from FOX Weather's Forecast Center. The study tallied 520 tropical‑cyclone cones issued for Atlantic and Eastern‑Pacific storms during the 2025 season, and the numbers paint a surprising picture of where forecasters are looking this year.
Why the Desert Southwest Is Getting More Attention
The bulk of Arizona’s six placements came from two Eastern‑Pacific hurricanes. First, Hurricane LorenaEastern Pacific Ocean churned northward in early September, and the NHC’s models warned that its moisture plume could splash into the desert after the storm lost its tropical identity. The second was Hurricane PriscillaEastern Pacific Ocean, which followed a similar track later that month. In both cases, the forecast “cone” – the familiar gray‑shaded area on NHC maps – stretched far enough inland to brush the Arizona border.
Florida’s Brief Encounter with a Cone
By contrast, Florida’s three cone updates were tied to Potential Tropical Cyclone NineAtlantic Ocean, which later earned the name Tropical Storm Imelda. The system barely grazed the state’s northeastern tip before veering offshore. That fleeting brush accounted for all of Florida’s points, leaving the Gulf Coast states untouched – Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama recorded zero cone placements as of Oct. 7.
Which States Are Actually in the Spotlight?
The data set shows a clear leader: the Carolinas. North Carolina and South Carolina together amassed 12 cone hits, twice the total for either Arizona or Florida. The reason? A series of Atlantic storms – including Tropical Storm ChantalAtlantic Ocean, the only U.S. landfall of the season – roamed close to the Southeast coast in late September, prompting frequent model updates.
How Forecast Cones Have Evolved in 2025
The NHC isn’t using the same vague blobs it did a decade ago. This year the agency trimmed cone widths by 3‑5 % for Atlantic systems and 5‑10 % for Eastern‑Pacific storms. At the 96‑hour mark the cone shrank by roughly 6 %, translating to a 45‑mile radius at hour 24 and about 245 miles at hour 120. These tweaks stem from NOAA’s upgraded Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS), which has boosted five‑day track accuracy by an extra half‑degree compared with the previous model cycle.
Even with these refinements, the NHC cautions that cones are not guarantees. Historically, hurricanes stay inside their forecast cone about two‑thirds of the time; the remaining one‑third veer outside, underscoring the need for continuous updates and public vigilance.
Current Storms and What’s Next
As of Oct. 8, Tropical Storm JerryAtlantic Ocean is intensifying. Forecasts suggest it could become a hurricane before reaching the Leeward Islands, where tropical‑storm watches are already in effect. The NHC, headquartered in Miami, Florida, says residents should stay tuned to local alerts – the cone’s shrinking size doesn’t mean the threat is any smaller.
Broader Implications for Disaster Preparedness
Arizona’s unexpected exposure to tropical‑cyclone cones highlights a shifting risk map. While the desert rarely feels direct hurricane impacts, moisture remnants can trigger flash floods and severe thunderstorms. Emergency managers in Phoenix and Tucson are now integrating NHC cone data into their seasonal planning, a practice traditionally reserved for Gulf‑coast jurisdictions.
Conversely, Florida’s relative quiet this season may lull some into complacency. Experts warn that a single missed cone could still spell disaster, as seen in 2022 when a storm skipped the forecast envelope but still slammed the Panhandle with unexpected surge.
Key Facts
- Arizona: 6 NHC cone placements (Lorena, Priscilla)
- Florida: 3 cone placements (Imelda)
- Carolinas lead U.S. with 12 placements
- Only U.S. landfall so far: Tropical Storm Chantal
- 2025 cones are 3‑10 % smaller than previous years
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Arizona receive more NHC forecast cones than Florida?
Arizona’s six cone hits came from two Eastern‑Pacific hurricanes whose moisture remnants were projected to move inland. The NHC’s models flagged these scenarios because even distant storms can bring heavy rain to the desert Southwest, whereas Florida was only brushed by one short‑lived system, Tropical Storm Imelda.
How have the NHC’s forecast cones changed in 2025?
The agency reduced cone widths by 3‑5 % for Atlantic storms and 5‑10 % for Pacific storms, with a notable 6 % shrink at the 96‑hour forecast point. These adjustments stem from the newer HAFS model, which offers tighter track errors and helps forecasters convey risk more precisely.
Which states are most at risk based on cone placements this season?
North Carolina and South Carolina top the list with 12 combined placements, followed by Arizona (6) and Florida (3). Gulf‑coast states such as Texas and Louisiana have seen none so far, but the data could shift as the season progresses.
What does the latest storm, Tropical Storm Jerry, mean for the upcoming weeks?
Jerry is expected to strengthen into a hurricane before reaching the Leeward Islands, where watches are already in place. The NHC’s updated cone shows a relatively narrow path, but residents should still prepare for strong winds and rain, as even a reduced‑size cone does not eliminate danger.
How should emergency planners use cone data beyond coastal areas?
Planners in inland regions like Arizona are now incorporating cone analytics to anticipate heavy‑rain events that can cause flash floods. By monitoring NHC updates, they can issue timely warnings and allocate resources before a storm’s remnants arrive.